This month’s Carnival of Journalism looks forward to new media developments in the coming year. Here are my no doubt misguided and naive predictions:

2009 will not be the year of the mobile web

Every year we make end of year predictions that the coming year will finally see the mobile web hit the mainstream. In many ways, it already has. But any expectations of there being some significant spread in 2009 will be scuppered by the credit crunch: users will be increasingly reluctant to spend money on a smart phone as the purse strings tighten. We’re not all going to be carrying around iPhones.

On the plus side, as a result of that slowdown we can expect mobile service providers to become more competitive in their data rates and packages, so that those who do have smart phones will have more reason to take out a mobile web package.

We can also expect to see increasing numbers of retailers offering free wifi to attract customers, as Pret A Manger have done, or government investment in wifi clouds to stimulate growth. So those who do access the web on the move – not just mobile phones but laptops and ipods – could start to do so more.

2009 will not be the year of the semantic web

The semantic web holds enormous promise for journalism, but it’s still early days and even the best products are far from mass market. I don’t expect that to change any time soon. However…

In 2009 Google will look more vulnerable than ever

Google has been fiddling with its successful formula, trying to keep users within its verticals and getting greedy for user data. It is weakest on local search and semantic search and both those areas should see a lot of development in 2009. In 2010, however, Google will probably simply buy the best competitors.

2009 will see social media getting lean – and mean

Social media startups who do not want to join Pownce on the scrapheap will stop developing extra features, trim others, and focus on their core business. Oh, and they’ll be under increasing pressure to actually start coming up with business models too, which means more advertising (if they can sell it), more e-commerce, and less stuff for free. All of which will mean less innovation, fewer users and startups without deep pockets joining Pownce on the scrapheap.

2009 will see a lot of thinking and little action

All those redundant journalists, publishers, developers, and estate agents will have plenty of time to reflect on how their industries are changing, to play around with online tools, meet people online and offline, and come up with ideas on where to go next.

They’ll be doing this in an environment where funds are beginning to appear that enable them to act on those. In the UK at least there is £1billion from NESTA, £50m from 4iP, £1m from the Scottish government and various other pots of money aimed at maintaining economic growth.

So by 2010, when the bids have been put in, funds released, and pilots completed, we should see some very interesting new media indeed.

PHP Freelancer

This was published as a guest post on Shane Richmond’s Daily Telegraph Technology blog:

Media organisations are still barely getting their heads around social media. They look at a conversation and see ‘vox pops’; they look at a community and see a market. They ask for ‘Your pictures’ and then complain when they get 1000 images of a mild snowfall.

They ghettoise viewers into 60 second slots at the end of the news bulletin, or ‘Have Your Say’ sections on the website. They can see the use of blogs and Twitter when they can’t access a disaster area and are desperate for news, but the rest of the time complain that they’re ‘only for geeks’ or ‘full of rumour’. And they advertise, when they should socialise.

So my first wish for 2009 is that media organisations stop complaining and start building the frameworks for a genuine participatory media. If they want good quality blogs, then show people how to blog. If they want to be able to spot breaking news, then show people how to Twitter. If they want user generated content then provide training.

The rewards are clear: if you teach a man to fish, they not only eat for a lifetime, but you’ve just created a market for fishing rods, bait and angling magazines. When the story breaks, they come to you. And if news organisations are hoping to replace the thousands of journalists they’re losing with user generated content, they need to be investing in that or that ‘workforce’ will go elsewhere.

So here’s my second wish: go offline.

Perhaps the biggest lesson I’ve learned about social media and online communities is that meeting someone in person is a more effective way of building relationships than any other. Online, the interesting stories will find me. The really interesting stories are offline, in the places where people don’t blog, and in 2009 I’d like to see those stories in a place where people can search for them.

There are some encouraging signs: in the Midlands, Trinity Mirror is giving multimedia reporters a web-enabled mobile phone and wifi laptop and sending them out of the office, reversing the office-bound trend of recent decades. Reuters and Gannett have been experimenting with similar forms of mobile phone journalism. And I’ve been working on a project – Help Me Investigate.com – which aims to give an online presence – and power – to offline voices.

My sister has never owned a computer, doesn’t work with one, and has no interest in technology. This week I found out she is social networking via her mobile phone. For me that is more significant than any number of stories about Twitter and the Mumbai attacks. We are barely at the start of an enormous change in how we communicate as a society, a change which is already meeting resistance from entrenched powers.

My 3rd wish is that 2009 sees that change take a proactive move in a democratic direction. Conversation is good, but if I’m always listening to the same people, I’ll never learn anything.

PHP Freelancer