I wager that after six months the News Of The World paywall will have been more successful than The Times in terms of retaining readers. (This is of course different to the more important, wider success of overall revenue).
That is all. See you back here in March.
Online Journalism Blog 
OK. A bet usually involves a stake – so what are you staking, if anything?
Would prefer the reply before March though, so as to not render this a hindsight induced farce.
Pete, editor at Dirty Garnet.
I bet my reputation as someone who knows which paywall will be more successful 😉
If you want to make it more interesting, I’ll personally bet you a tenner, if you want to take up the opposite prediction…
Yeah why not? We’re on. The last time I did such a morally inclined bet was 2004 on John Kerry winning over Bush in November’s presidential. The ‘lesser of two evils’ wishful idealist may be regaining sway in my ever-pathetic, ever-sensible brain.
Pete, editor at Dirty Garnet.
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Would you care to say WHY you think the News of the World will be more successful?
Of course – was hoping the comment thread might provide a good place to discuss it. I think those who are writing it off are mistaking their own perceptions of value for those of the readers of NOTW.
So. OK: first – the readers are different and their purchasing behaviour is different. Second, they have more of them. Third, the price point is different. Fourth, they do unique content which has emotional and social value. Finally, they make content which is web-only.
Here’s another perspective, before you even look at the detail above: broadsheets have always been more dependent on advertising, and rarely been profitable. Tabloids are more dependent on sales, and are more often profitable. In other words, the NOTW is more experienced in selling content to readers; The Times is more experienced in selling readers to advertisers. I’m betting on experience.
All good points.
I can’t speak for the UK, but the New Zealand experience says lower income, less educated people are more likely to subscribe to pay TV. It’ll be interesting to see if online newspapers go the same way.
It’s easy to overlook the way numbers and price work together, particularly online where the marginal cost of delivering an extra copy is effectively zero.
I’m not sure if the unique content is different enough or valuable enough – so I guess this will link back to the asking price.
Yep. I think you’re probably right on this. But either way, it’s going to be fascinating watching it.
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